Forecast & historical wind data

14-day forecast · Shavei Tzion

Expected wind at Shavei Tzion

Strongest in the next 7 days: Thu 8 15:00 · 11 kt (likely 9–13) · gusts 17 kt · NNW

ikite's estimate: each model is corrected by its own track record at this spot, then weighted by how reliable it has been. Recalculated every morning after new forecasts arrive. On past days here, the real wind landed inside the shaded range 91% of the time.

Fri 2

Daily forecast

Shavei Tzion

Time Shavei Tzion (real) IMS aifs ukmo gdps gfs icon13 icon7 icon_eu ifs wrf3 wrf9
06:00 3-7 7-7 4-7 6-7 5-7 5-9 5-8 4-7 7-12 10-12 9-10
07:00 4-10 7-7 5-8 6-7 6-8 6-10 6-9 5-8 9-15 11-13 11-12
08:00 2-10 5-12 8-8 5-10 6-8 6-10 7-11 8-11 6-10 8-15 11-13 12-13
09:00 3-12 4-15 8-8 5-11 7-11 8-11 9-14 9-13 9-15 10-18 11-13 11-13
10:00 3-23 3-8 8-8 5-12 9-13 11-12 10-17 10-16 9-18 9-17 10-11 10-11
11:00 1-14 5-21 8-8 6-15 11-14 13-13 13-20 13-20 11-20 12-20 11-11 10-11
12:00 6-28 9-9 8-17 11-14 13-13 12-21 13-20 11-21 11-20 10-11 12-13
13:00 15-25 9-9 9-18 10-14 14-14 11-21 11-20 9-20 13-22 13-14 14-15
14:00 10-10 11-22 10-13 11-13 10-20 10-19 9-21 11-20 16-17 15-16
15:00 10-10 11-22 10-13 10-12 10-20 9-19 9-21 8-17 9-11 13-15
16:00 10-10 10-19 9-12 10-13 8-19 7-18 7-20 5-11 8-10 12-14
17:00 8-8 8-16 7-10 9-11 7-18 6-17 5-20 2-7 10-13 8-9
18:00 7-7 5-10 5-8 6-9 4-17 4-17 2-17 3-8 6-9 3-5
19:00 5-5 3-6 4-5 2-3 2-8 1-11 2-5 4-7 9-11 1-2
20:00 4-4 2-5 2-4 2-2 2-7 3-6 2-4 4-7 8-10 2-3

Model accuracy at Shavei Tzion

Same-day forecasts vs this spot's meter · 59 days · 09:00–18:00

Model Wind error Wind bias Gust vs real peak Gust factor Hours
ikite estimate best wind ±0.9 +0.2 -0.3 1.60× 469
gdps ±1.3 +0.7 -2.6 1.22× 586
ifs ±1.5 +1.1 +3.4 1.89× 586
aifs ±1.5 +0.7 -4.3 1.00× 566
ukmo ±1.6 +0.8 +4.1 2.06× 566
icon7 ±1.8 +1.5 +1.3 1.55× 586
icon_eu ±1.9 +1.4 +3.2 1.90× 230
icon13 ±2.2 +2.0 +3.1 1.69× 586
gfs ±2.4 +2.4 -2.9 0.96× 586
wrf9 ±2.9 +2.9 -1.8 1.03× 586
wrf3 ±3.0 +2.9 -2.1 1.00× 586

Real gusts here peak at 1.62× the wind. A model whose gust factor is well above that has gusts that run hot. Forecasts several days out are less accurate than these same-day scores.