Forecast & historical wind data

14-day forecast · Los Alcazares

Expected wind at Los Alcazares

Strongest in the next 7 days: Fri 9 11:00 · 8 kt (likely 3–14) · gusts 16 kt · NNE

ikite's estimate: each model is corrected by its own track record at this spot, then weighted by how reliable it has been. Recalculated every morning after new forecasts arrive. On past days here, the real wind landed inside the shaded range 80% of the time.

Fri 2

Daily forecast

Los Alcazares

Time Los Alcazares (real) gdps gfs icon13 icon7 ifs wrf3 wrf9
06:00 9-12 8-12 6-10 6-10 9-15 7-12 6-14
07:00 9-12 10-15 7-12 7-13 11-18 6-16 6-14
08:00 4-8 9-11 12-19 8-13 8-13 9-15 4-11 7-16
09:00 4-8 7-10 13-20 9-16 9-17 9-16 9-12 7-17
10:00 4-9 7-9 15-20 11-18 10-19 10-18 8-18 11-18
11:00 4-12 10-12 17-19 10-21 8-20 9-16 7-14 13-16
12:00 5-11 10-12 14-16 8-17 9-17 6-11 12-15 11-14
13:00 5-9 9-11 15-18 11-19 11-20 9-16 12-15 10-12
14:00 9-11 16-18 11-19 10-19 6-11 10-10 9-11
15:00 7-9 15-17 9-18 9-18 9-16 14-16 10-11
16:00 6-7 12-15 9-17 9-17 6-12 10-11 12-13
17:00 5-7 11-15 10-18 10-18 8-16 11-12 12-14
18:00 7-9 13-17 10-17 10-18 7-13 12-14 13-15
19:00 9-11 15-20 9-17 9-17 7-12 12-15 14-18
20:00 10-13 15-21 7-15 7-16 7-12 13-17 10-18

Model accuracy at Los Alcazares

Same-day forecasts vs this spot's meter · 14 days · 09:00–18:00

Model Wind error Wind bias Gust vs real peak Gust factor Hours
ikite estimate best wind ±2.4 -1.4 -2.8 – 120
ifs ±3.7 +2.9 +3.8 1.84× 140
icon7 ±3.8 +2.6 +3.2 1.94× 140
icon13 ±3.9 +3.0 +3.0 1.79× 140
wrf3 ±4.8 +4.2 -0.5 1.09× 140
gdps ±5.1 +4.5 +0.6 1.20× 140
gfs ±5.1 +4.6 -0.8 0.98× 140
wrf9 ±6.0 +5.5 +0.4 1.02× 140

Real gusts here peak at 2.00× the wind. A model whose gust factor is well above that has gusts that run hot. Forecasts several days out are less accurate than these same-day scores.